Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 9:11 AM   Moonset 12:24 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 356 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening. Thu - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ300 356 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system to the west will dissipate while an upper level disturbance passes east of new england, with surface high pressure remaining in its wake tonight through Monday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night. Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week. Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 121954 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system to the west will dissipate while an upper level disturbance passes east of New England, with surface high pressure remaining in its wake tonight through Monday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night.
Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week.
Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Rain band that had been over the NYC area has dissipated, with only a couple of isolated leftover showers seen on radar.
Shortwave trough rotating around a departing closed low along with sfc convergence is producing sct showers across parts of CT and have left them in the forecast through this evening. After these pass skies should clear across most of the area, though mid level clouds with the dissipating frontal sys to the west may hang around NYC and points west. Low temps tonight will range from near 50 in NYC to the 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Rising heights aloft and sfc high pressure should lead to a milder day on Mon, with highs reaching the lower 70s in NE NJ and rising into the 60s elsewhere on a S flow, with sea breeze enhancement along the coast during the afternoon. A shortwave trough riding atop the upper ridge associated with a warm front passing to the north should bring an increase in clouds and may trigger some late day end evening showers mainly inland, followed by clearing skies later Mon night. With the area in the warm sector lows Mon night should range from the upper 40s across SE CT and parts of eastern Long Island, to the 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An upr low emerging onto the Plains will traverse the country and reach the local area by the middle of the week. Height falls as early as Tue aftn could trigger a few shwrs, particularly nwrn zones, along with a chc of tstms as well.

As a weak sfc low approaches Tue ngt and passes offshore on Wed, a more stratiform rain is expected, with the CWA on the nrn and wrn side of the low. Robust convection to the south could rob some of the moisture, but blended probs are high for pcpn, and moisture transport vectors do show at least some deeper moisture advecting in.

Sly flow will moderate temps on Tue, especially the ern 2/3 of the cwa, then flow comes around to the NE behind the low on Wed.
Temps lower on Wed with the rain and clouds, then a E-NE flow remains locked in right thru next weekend. Cooler temps Long Island and the immediate CT coast. The NBM was used for temps.

There are some model timing differences on Thu with the ECMWF slower to eject the upr low. The GFS has ridging building in quickly and a dry day. Stuck with the blended approach and only have slight chcs in the fcst. Dry on Fri with weak high pres along the E coast, then the next sys arrives for the weekend.
There remain timing differences, with the GFS continuing to be the quicker moving sys, similar to the model runs 24 hours ago.
The NBM was followed, with the best chcs remaining on Sat.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure will be over the terminals through tonight before pushing offshore on Monday.

Conditions will continue to improve to VFR this afternoon. There may be an isolated shower across Southern CT this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR prevails tonight through Monday. The only exception is at HPN where some brief IFR or LIFR is possible late tonight into early Monday morning.

Light S-SE winds will become SW late this afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will be less than 10 kt. Winds diminish tonight, becoming light and/or variable. SW winds increase after 12z Monday, becoming S in the afternoon 10-15 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR could linger 1-2 hours longer this afternoon at KLGA and KEWR.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon near the coast.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast late.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast in the evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR possible. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Seas at 44025 are flirting with 5 ft. With these higher seas only on the outer fringe of the coastal ocean waters have not issued SCA. Better chance for more widespread 5-ft seas will come late day Mon into Mon evening S flow ramps up to 15-20 kt.

Mrgnl SCA winds and seas also possible on the ocean Tue with S flow, then 4-8 ft seas on the ocean Wed. Winds on the protected waters are progged to remain blw SCA lvls attm.

Lingering seas and NE winds close to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu, and mrgnl winds elsewhere. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Fri and possibly on Sat.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Davids Island
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